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Prediction for CME (2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-29T16:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31755/-1
CME Note: Wide CME visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and S/SW in STEREO A COR2. The source is a large filament eruption spanning from S30E10 to S20W40. Liftoff seen starting at about 2024-06-29T15:09Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195/304 after a data gap from 2024-06-29T13:05Z to 2024-06-29T17:25Z. || Possible arrival signature: The first of a series of complex arrival signatures seen at L1. A very small increase in B-total from 3nT to 4.6nT is seen starting at 2024-07-02T23:41Z, with corresponding rotation of B-field components. B-total begins to steadily increase over the next several hours until reaching a peak value of 6.41nT at 2024-07-03T15:30Z. A corresponding steady rotation of B-field components progresses over several hours until 2024-07-03T15:30Z. Temperature steadily decreases from about 80 K at 2024-07-02T22:38Z to about 50 K at 2024-07-02T23:41Z. Density remains very low, around 2cc, until 2024-07-03T15:30Z. This arrival is currently suspected to be the combined arrival of the filament eruption CME:2024-06-29T16:12Z and the glancing blow arrival of CME:2024-06-29T04:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-02T23:41Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-02T22:13Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

Issued: 2024 Jun 30 1231 UTC
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 40630
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 Jun 2024, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
Coronal mass ejections: A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in
LASCO/C2 coronagraph data starting at 16:00 UTC on June 29. The CME is directed primarily to the southwest from the Earth's perspective and is associated with a large filament eruption that occurred in the southwestern quadrant around 15:12 UTC on June 29. The CME is estimated to have an Earth-directed component and is expected to arrive at Earth late on July 2.
No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Lead Time: 64.52 hour(s)
Difference: 1.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-06-30T07:10Z

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